This case study is included in the report “Financing Repression” – find out more in this page.
In Tajikistan, some of the major development banks – under a scheme orchestrated by the World Bank – are getting involved in financing the controversial Rogun hydroelectric project. This mega dam risks causing major environmental, social and financial impacts in Tajikistan and other countries downstream, with around 60,000 people expected to be displaced. Despite these worrying impacts, there are limited opportunities for affected communities to voice concerns. According to CIVICUS, the space for civil society in Tajikistan is “closed” as of 2024, which means that project-affected people will likely lack safe, meaningful opportunities to have their say, seek information, or raise concerns around the Rogun dam.
Since 1992, Tajikistan has been under the authoritarian regime of President Emomali Rahmon. According to several international organizations (e.g. Human Rights Watch, Freedom House, and Amnesty International), in recent years the country’s human rights record has continued to deteriorate and there has been an increased crackdown on dissenting voices. Journalists, independent lawyers, and political opponents are particularly targeted, but ordinary citizens are also increasingly facing harassment and criminalization for criticizing the government online or offline in recent years. According to Freedom House, this has led “individuals to regularly self-censor in order to avoid reprisals.”
The country’s freedom of expression situation has also been consistently worsening each year. According to the ARTICLE 19 Global Expression Report 2024, Tajikistan is among the countries with the lowest ranking worldwide, standing at 151 out of 161.
About the Rogun dam
The Rogun hydropower project, first conceived in the 1970s, was relaunched in 2006. If completed, it will become the tallest structure of its kind in the world. However, even in the first phase, Human Rights Watch has documented several rights violations related to the project.
Tajikistan has already spent US$ 3.3 billion on the dam, but needs at least another US$ 6.3 billion to complete it. The Islamic Development Bank, Saudi Development Fund and OPEC Fund have already signed agreements to fund the project. The World Bank, which so far has provided technical support, is also coordinating the “Rogun sustainable finance” scheme with other DFIs such as EIB, ADB and AIIB. Moreover, other banks, such as EBRD and China Eximbank, are financing associated projects like transmission lines and roads.
Why DFIs should care
As civil society organizations have repeatedly pointed out, in such a restrictive context – with low levels of transparency, high risk of corruption, and widespread human rights violations – consultations cannot be considered meaningful. In February 2024, the World Bank published the Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP) for this project. However, the plan fails to address civic space concerns and the operational risks posed by serious civic space restrictions in the country.
Of particular concern is the involvement of the military in providing security for the project. The World Bank’s Environmental and Social Commitment Plan acknowledges that this might pose some risks, but it suggests that the project’s grievance mechanism will be adequate to handle any grievances. This overlooks the intrinsic risk of retaliation when reporting misbehavior or violence perpetrated by military officers.
Finally, the SEP also fails to address transboundary consultations with potentially impacted communities downstream. The Rogun Dam is being built on the Vakhsh river, which flows into Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Despite scientific research proving otherwise, the current environmental and social impact assessment denies significant changes in downstream flows and does not adequately assess potential negative impacts, omitting this key issue from consultations with riparian communities.
Moreover, as these countries also have highly restrictive contexts, serious doubts remain about whether any meaningful stakeholder engagement can be conducted. If the development of the Rogun dam leads to significant negative impacts on downstream communities – which is very likely in dry years and in case of an accident – over eight million people may be denied access to grievance mechanisms or any avenue to claim and receive compensation for lost livelihoods, economic displacement, and increased living costs, among other impacts.